Critical Thinking and the Psychology of Confidence

Reading the self-help literature could leave you with the impression that the goal in life is to maximize your confidence. On the other hand, research on overconfidence highlights all the ways in which people can get themselves into trouble by being too confident. Expert Don Moore will explore this tension by examining the psychology of confidence. Evidence underscores risks on both sides. Overconfidence leads people to delude themselves with wishful thinking, take too many risks, pursue impossible goals and waste their time on doomed ventures. Under-confidence dissuades people from taking risks that would pay off and scares them away from trying things they would enjoy. The evidence highlights a promising middle way between these twin risks.

Don Moore holds the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. His research interests include overconfidence, including when people think they are better than they actually are, when people think they are better than others, and when they are too sure they know the truth. He is only occasionally overconfident.